Hello everyone.
I have a quick question, just to understand how it works.
I've played 9 away matches out of the last 10 IE matches I've played.
Can someone explain to me how it works? I'm not trying to reverse the statistic, but at least be balanced.
Maybe I've just been unlucky.

It's just against you, the next 20 will still be away 🤣

Mdr thanks Rull, fortunately I don't have to pay for the players to travel 😂

I've noticed that if you accept an offer in the toilet, you're often in deep shit!

I'm not sure (to be checked), but the home match goes to the club that first clicked on a free date.

King: Je ne suis pas sur (à vérifier), mais, le match à domicile revient au club qui à cliqué en premier sur une date libre. Tu as accepté les matchs dont les clubs ont fait part de leur disponibilité.

No, it's purely random. :-)

Hydilik: Non, c'est purement aléatoire. :-)

Oh right! 😅

All simple, it's your destiny

I can confirm that it's not the one that clicks first as I've had both cases on both IEs coming in and both on the outside.
I have a feeling it's fine, just a matter of luck 😅

7/7 ie outdoors this season too! 😂

steril: J ai remarqué que si tu acceptes une offre aux toilettes , tu es souvent dans la merde!

🤣

10 out of 12 outside....
Maybe we can find a system to balance everyone out

hazard14: 10 sur 12 à l extérieur....
Peut être trouver un système pour équilibrer pour tout le monde

Pure chance 😁

That's a bad name for me....

I think I'm at 9/9 away from home too, there's got to be a trick, it's not possible to have a proba like that.

Ced90: Je crois que je suis à 9/9 à l’extérieur aussi, il y a forcément un truc c’est pas possible d’avoir une proba comme ça

A bit like the mdm xD

I checked ALL the games to make my calculations and on average it's 50/50: one away team and one at home.

Bernarinho: J'ai été vérifier TOUS les matchs pour faire mes calculs et en moyenne c'est 50/50 : une équipe à l'extérieur et une à domicile.

Well, in any case, if there's a team playing away, there's bound to be one playing at home, so the 50/50 seems a bit inevitable^^.

Those who are complaining about their ratio this season must not have looked at it in other seasons... And maybe they have a toenail that grows faster than the same toe on the other foot, they should check.

If we're talking about it, it's because it's not new....

15 out of 18 away from home for me over 3 seasons.
So maybe I'll have to go back to season 36 to get my balance right. Thanks to vf light for this info

I'll come back to this 19 out of 24 outside..... it might be nice to do something to balance this out.
I'm sure I'm not the only one in this situation.

All my ie outside for me 😅
But it's a bit random, so we'll have to make do 😉

On the other hand, this season 35 out of 69 Ie are at home, an average of 1/2, for you LV.

You may not have succeeded, but in comparison your friends have, there's no point, it's clearly a coin toss, and the more you throw it, the lower the variance will be and tend towards 1/2.

have a good day

That's right.
Try launching your IE's with Myforsan, he seems to be getting all the luck he needs to play his IE's at home with his 4/5.

I'm not just talking about this season ....
And if anyone has the figures I think that some agreements have far more matches ie at home than away. I'm not quoting any agreement, but finding a solution that balances things out for everyone would be a good idea, given the importance of playing at home.

I think the one who asks (plays) on the outside every time

michbou: je crois que celui qui demande ( joue ) a l'exterieur a chaque fois

Not true.

Careful, I didn't say it was safe I think I did say ( I think)
So don't rush me or my heart will give out 😅😅😅😅😅😅

But I'd really like our opponents to put forward some valid arguments.
Thank you young people

michbou: Mais j' aimerais bien que Les contradicteurs donnent des arguments valables
Merci les jeunes

Contradictors of what exactly?
Hazard's theory or your answer?

For homes/outside when we make the request 🤔

hazard14: Je reviens sur ce sujet 19 sur 24 à l extérieur..... ça serai peut être sympa de faire quelque chose pour équilibré cela.
Je dois pas être le seul dans ce cas.

That's the problem with making "probabilities" on a small scale. On a panel of 100 matches already, you can find variations of 10-20% depending on the season, by agreement (the number of home matches per season varies between 40-60% in general). So on a panel of 10-20 matches, it's not impossible to find variations ranging from 20% to 80% of matches at home. But the main thing is that over many more games, everything will balance out.

If we take a slightly larger sample (those in the top 6, and the lower agreements in D1 with 60 matches already scheduled) over the current season alone :

LV: 35/69 (50.72%)
LR: 32/55 (58.18%)
CP: 31/53 (58.49%)
Circle: 23/60 (38.33%)
RTG: 27/62 (43.55%)
LGM: 32/54 (59.26%)
Team Bourgogne: 37/67 (55.22%)
L'entente languedocienne: 24/66 (36.36%) (potentially slightly underestimated due to a lack of tags and therefore visibility)

We can see what I was saying above, with "big" inequalities at the start of the season depending on the agreement. But if we add them up to arrive at a larger scale :
Ndomicile = 35+32+31+23+27+32+31 = 211
Ntot = 69+55+53+60+62+54+67 = 420
NDomicile / Ntot = 211/420 = .... 50.238095238%
With 420 matches, taking only 8 of the 16 D1 agreements, we can see that it seems to be 50-50 between home and away.

Conclusion: Never draw conclusions based on a small sample when you want to highlight trends of this kind (especially when you have the possibility of using large samples).

michbou: Pour les domiciles/ extérieur quand nous faisons là demande 🤔

The arguments are simple: those who do IE have already seen it... It's not because you make a request that it puts you on the outside, de facto.
At worst, if you don't believe it, try? Try asking even 5 questions and you'll see. And if you fail even once, you'll have your answer.
But I'm telling you, if you want to save time, you're on the wrong track with this statement.

Mind you, I'm not making any claims 🤔

Give me probabilities on several seasons and not on 1 season to show what suits you 😉

Just bad luck I guess

Maybe no luck but 18 or 19 out of 23 over 4 seasons is a lot.....
To be honest, I'm making odds on 1 season....

Don't bother, Brewen. You could show him the moon, he'd look at your finger.

Magpie: Cherche pas brewen. Tu pourrais lui montrer la lune, qu'il regarderai ton doigt.

Tkt I'm looking more with you CP 😉
I'll go and discuss it on discord. You will still have the conversation since you put a mole among the lv 😉
Good day CPs 😀

michbou: Attention je n' affirme pas 🤔

As far as I'm concerned, you're just speculating, mainly because the data we can see doesn't allow us to validate or refute this hypothesis. You'd have to do the same large-scale analysis as above, but not by agreement, just by 2 groups:

• Home vs away matches of those making the request (figures not known)
• Home vs away match of those accepting the request (figures not known)

Theoretically, for 10,000 matches, we should obtain 2,500 matches for each of the four options, i.e. :
=> Players making the request (if the ratio is 50-50) :
2,500 home
2,500 away

=> Players who have accepted the request (if the ratio is 50-50) :
2500 home
2500 away

And secondly, what would be the point of modifying the code for the random 50-50 allocation proba created for the other match/competition modules depending on who makes the request, and the competition mode you're in? It would require a bit more work for the MDJ, for an illogical purpose.

On the other hand, it's easy to get a biased statistical impression on a small scale (10-50 matches), which is where this speculation comes from.

hazard14: Peut être pas de chance mais 18 ou 19 sur 23 sur 4 saisons ça fait beaucoup.....
Me faire des probabilités sur 1 saison franchement....

I'm doing probabilities on a sample of 420 matches. You're doing probabilities on a sample of 23. When you don't know how to handle statistics and probabilities, sometimes it's better not to say anything.

And as far as "a single season" is concerned, we all know that A45 has no business changing its home/away allocation algorithm every season, which would make it impossible to produce statistics for a single season, even with 1,000 games... That said, it is possible, and that's the limit of my analysis above.

But frankly, when you don't know a thing, sometimes it's better to keep a low profile, listen and study to get a feel for the subject.

hazard14: Peut être pas de chance mais 18 ou 19 sur 23 sur 4 saisons ça fait beaucoup.....
Me faire des probabilités sur 1 saison franchement....

You were luckier when it came to drawing your opponents, without wishing to insult the others, but apart from Skyz 2 times, Estac 2 times and Jex 1 time, the other 19 matches were ones where you were favourites and clearly within your reach.
But as far as I'm concerned, your bad luck in playing away from home was offset by the adversity of your IE's.

Excuse me, maths teacher.
You can run your probabilities over a season and it won't give me any answers to what I'm saying....
You need 2 teams to play a match, so you're bound to get 50-50 ...
Give me your probabilities over 3 or 4 seasons and we'll talk again...

Tkt I cut Socrates short.
All I ask is that it's balanced for everyone, even in my own agreement.
You can give me vf top 10s for every game, that's not the problem. Just a bit more balance wouldn't be bad and I'm not talking about 1 season here.
Bonne journée

michbou: je crois que celui qui demande ( joue ) a l'exterieur a chaque fois

no I accepted and I play away

#match?mid=6488852

hazard14: Tkt je coupe court socrate .
Toute façon je demande juste à ce que sa soit équilibré pour tout le monde même dans ma propre entente .
Tu peux me me mettre des top10 vf à chaque match c'est pas le soucis . Juste un peu plus d'équilibre serai pas mal et je parle pas sur 1 saison pour le coup.
Bonne journée

it's going to be difficult to do anything more balanced than 34/69.
The current IE mechanism means that there is no automatic recalculation to balance by manager. That said, brewen's average per agreement shows that within a single agreement, on the whole, you can't complain too much, even if there are occasional discrepancies.

So, if for you what's important is the balance per manager, we can understand that, but you won't win your case and frankly, you're denouncing a false problem.

Pierabou: ca va etre difficile de faire plus équilibré que 34/69.
le mécanisme actuel des IE fait qu'il n'y a pas de recalcul automatique pour équilibrer par manager. Cela étant dit, la moyenne par entente de brewen, montre que dans une seule et meme entente, globalement on ne peut pas trop se plaindre. meme si à l'occasion il peut y avoir quelques écarts.

Alors, si pour toi ce qui est important, c'est l'équilibre par manager, on l'entend bien, mais tu n'auras pas gain de cause et franchement, tu déno...

At least you understood what I meant, my friend.
Because I'm talking about my case where it's really an imbalance over several seasons.

Yes, but you're talking about IE hazard matches. So an agreement. So potentially more managers than just one. So you can't make this all about you. It's just bad luck on your draw. Some of your colleagues in the agreement have more than you, that's all. It may reverse itself one day, or it may not.
Brewen couldn't be clearer and his sample is very good, more than 400 matches over 6 agreements... He surely has other things to do than that, so you can do your ratios on the 6 agreements over the last 10 seasons if you like, but you'll see that the stats that come out will be very close.
An agreement is a multitude of members, so your variable drops, that's normal. That's normal.
Good luck to everyone in the race for the title.

Lolo7: Et oui mais tu parles de matchs IE hazard. Donc d'une entente. Soit potentiellement plus de managers qu'un seul. Donc tu ne peux pas ramener ça à toi uniquement. C'est juste pas de chance sur ton tirage. Certains de tes collègues d'entente en ont plus que toi voilà tout. Ça s'inversera peut être un jour, ou pas.
Brewen ne peut pas être plus clair et son échantillon est très bon, + de 400 matchs sur 6 ententes... Il a aussi sûrement d'autres choses à faire que ça donc tu peux faire tes ratios ...

If you have 4 seasons in a row with a 60% home advantage, your chances are still good?

60% isn't crazy for one agreement, as you say. You're telling me 80% over 4 deals is crazy. But that's not the case at the moment.