Andre Malles |

Acum 23h

When one of the teams is certain to score 0 goals, while the other isn't and the game finished 0-0, why are results with 0 probability "displayed" on the graph?

image

On the image above, sum of probable scores only amount to around 0.45, so why are some other possible results not shown (at least to make it above 50%)?

It looks like result is taken into account and only +/- couple of goals (up to 3 ?) are displayed as possible results (those with highest probability are displayed).


Andre Malles |

Acum 23h

If this is "a feature" (deemed not a bug), please close the topic


Magpie |

Acum 23h

Probably because the opponent never has "zero" probability of scoring.
Here, 0 is shown, but this is probably a rounding-off.
In reality, they have a 0.04% chance of scoring a goal, and a 0.01% chance of scoring two, for example.
This is a guess, of course.

But I've already seen a club get a goal with 0 xG in the final report.
Personally, I've also conceded a goal against a club that had 0.01 xG in the final. Perhaps it had even less, but the figure in the summary is a rounding-off, I think.


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Andre Malles |

Acum 18h

To be fair, I've never seen someone conceding when the opponent had reported 0 expected goals.

Maybe it's not a bug, but more of a "bad user experience", as it would be more logical to display 4-0, 5-0. ... on the graph and in the list of possible scores sorted by probability (I think these possible results are omitted because algorithm uses score +- up to 3 goals) than those with probability less than 0.0005 (or 0.001 if rounding is not used), but the problem would be if a team scores against the odds and display is based only on expected goals, so the algorithm should probably consider both the score and expected goals.

The more I think about it, I'd say that it's not a bug, but there is not really category for "user experience". I think that it is kinda something that I would try to "fix" in my code if someone points out, but would insist that it's not a bug.


Brutus |

Acum 11h

If there's 0 - 0... why do you want to see 4-0 or 5-0?
So why do you want to make 0-1 or 0-2 disappear?

We've never scored 0%... it's the 10th or 100th so it's not displayed!

The reports are only superficial... you have to stop focusing on that ;)


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