Good evening everyone I'm not the type to complain when I lose a match but today something happened that was not normal I'll explain, my opponent in the match ie had posted a team composed of young people with 40 overall score and not present I was so I could make my 5 changes and not him the blow, my team 95 of overall mark against a team 40 of overall mark and which more is tired as not possible I had 17 chances of goal with a xg of 4 and my adversary 0,1 I would show you the screen there was 1,7 % quont faire 0 0 et c'est ce qui s'est passé j'ai jamais voulu croire toutes les personnes qui me dit que le moteur de match était foireux et que le jeu était devenu du lotto car je suis une personne qui croit pas ce qu'on lui dit mais qui croit ce quil voit et bien je peux vous assurer que aujourd'hui j'ai vue et j'en ai vrement la preuve même mon adversaire quand il s'est connecté ma mp pour me demander comment celaais possible et je n'suai pas sue quoi répondre voici la preuve mon pseudo AndrewLyon mon club Olympique Lyonnais

Is 1.7% equal to 0?

Nah, that's true, as far as I'm concerned 1.7% isn't equal to 0 and 17 opportunities don't mean a thing, so thank you.

That means you had a 95.9% chance of winning... and a 4.1% chance of not winning.
You have nothing to reproach yourself for, you maximised your chances of victory, but you weren't successful.
The match engine would be "not normal" if all matches like this ended in a win for the team that had 17 chances.

Blagoje Vidinic: Est-ce que 1.7% est égal à 0 ?

No blag(oje)ing with the match engine!

Apart from increasing the chances of scoring (the maximum xG of a chance is currently around 0.27, i.e. 1 chance in 4 of scoring), this will continue to happen.
It's a subject that's already been discussed 150 times here and nothing has changed.

For me, we should be able to stick to 10xG and have 0.9xG chances that have a 90% chance of going in when the gap is huge, such as 300 attackers vs 23 defenders in the zone, but hey.

The real question is could he have changed the result?
Or was it the match moderator who decided?
Is it really worth the waste of time or not?

Yes, I think you're right. I'm the one who's a bit paranoid about the edges, so for me I hadn't thought that 1.7% didn't equal 0, so for me, thank you for your answers.

junior: Moi la vrai question c'est aurait il pu changer le résultat ?
Ou es le modérateur de match qui a décidé ?
Es que ça vaut vraiment la perte de temps ou pas ?

The result is not written in advance.
He had a 1 in 4 chance of scoring on each occasion... And each opportunity is independent of the others, so until the last opportunity he could win.

Blagoje Vidinic: Le résultat n'est pas écrit à l'avance.
Il avait 1 chance sur 4 de marquer à chaque occasion... Et chaque occasion est indépendante des autres donc jusqu'à la dernière opportunité il pouvait gagner.

Thank you for your reply

Blagoje Vidinic: Le résultat n'est pas écrit à l'avance.
Il avait 1 chance sur 4 de marquer à chaque occasion... Et chaque occasion est indépendante des autres donc jusqu'à la dernière opportunité il pouvait gagner.

In fact, 1 in 4, whatever the opportunity you get, is probably the biggest aberration in this game.

It was a small push there is now on the game of small push Quevilly marked the spirits of Virtuafoot it must put small push it is realistic but there are many on Virtuafoot 😅😅😅😂😂😂

Tell your players to stop betting on sports to avoid match-fixing 😂😂😂😂

If I don't understand 1 chance in 4 of scoring on each occasion, so 17 chances, does that seem normal? Let's say I place 4 glasses on a table with a random ball in one of the glasses 17 times in a row, what are the chances you'll find the ball among the 4 glasses 17 times in a row? If it is the case you quickly played in Euro Millions between us who think that it is possible to find the ball among 4 glasses 17 times in a row without it being wrong once? Of course I specify that they are not transparent glasses I prefer to specify it one never knows have risk to say to me that it is possible if the glasses are transparent I would not be shocked as much to be clear ^^

Hi
I'm not an expert and I don't read the matrix, so this is just my hypothesis.
The probability of 1 in 4 is only when you have a full chance, but there are also small chances that fall below that.
To get an 'average' probability for your match, I divide the final xg by the number of chances.
I've had 19 chances with a xg of 5, so I end up with 5/19 = 0.26, so 19 times I've had big chances.
On the other hand I have a xg of 1.5 although I've had 10 chances, I fall to an average of 0.15 so 15% chance (maybe some chances at 25 and others at 10%) and despite my 10 chances the 0 goal is more likely.
However, I don't know at what minimum this triggers an opportunity (and that explains why you can have 0.10 xg without having had a single opportunity).

AndrewLyon: Si je comprend pas 1 chance sur 4 de marqué sur chaque occasions donc 17 occasions ca parrait normal ? Disont que je place 4 verre sur une table avec une boule au hasard dans l'un des verre et cela a 17 reprise, quelles sont les probabilités que vous tombiez sur la boule parmis les 4 verres et cela 17 fois de suite ? Si c'est le cas vous vite joué a Euro Millions entre nous qui pensse que cest possible de trouvé la boule parmis 4 verre a 17 reprises d'affilée sans ce tromper une seule fois ? ...

Hello,

In fact, to follow your comparison, it would be more like saying that out of 4 -opaque- glasses, only 1 of which contains the ball you want to get, you would take one of the 3 glasses that don't contain the ball 17 times in a row.
That's more or less what happened in your match.
But you used your luck for Vf, too late for the Euro Millions :D

Then there's the urban legend of the 'black season' boolean, which says that every now and then we have a season that adds a penalty to our chances of scoring, so that even if we have 20 chances, none of them will go in.

Gerets' analogy is the right one. And the probability of never coming across a glass containing the ball in this case is about 8 per thousand.

Gerets autant pour moi c'est vrai que j'ai les choses dans l'autre sens javais pas bien compris effectivement tu a raison mais malgré tout ca reste incroyable au point que je post sur le forum alors que je suis quelqu'un de très discret c'est vrement que ça ma supris surtout that the guy I played against wasn't on and that I had to make 5 changes because of his absence, not him and despite everything it's a bit like there was nothing to do, we could have played the match for 4h00 and I would have had maybe 40 chances and none would have gone in. After all, I'm someone who loves this game and fair play, so I'll accept a defeat, even a draw, but as I keep hearing about the match engine, and I used to say I didn't believe in it, I'm starting to wonder about it, and I think it's sad that such a good game has been abandoned. I'll continue to play because I love this game but I'll have to accept the lottery aspect from now on.

There's nothing to say that the 18th chance wouldn't have led to a goal, as well as the 19th, 20th and 21st.
Maybe if you'd had 4 more chances you'd have won 4-0 and wouldn't have opened the scoring, but the string of 17 goalless chances would have been just as astonishing.

It's a bit like a cat biting its own tail, because if I'd had 50 chances without scoring, you might as well have told me that there's nothing to say that I wouldn't have scored on 51, 52, 53 or 54 of those chances. I think that 16 chances is already a fair amount of inconsistency against a B team made up of youngsters in the early stages of their training.

This is what we call probability.

Probability in poker I like but in football I would like it to be less problematic probabilities but let's just say that in this case it was really bad luck and that I was really unlucky I prefer to take things that way than to tell myself that there is a match engine that does not work well.

AndrewLyon: Probabilité au poker je veut bien mais au foot jaimerai que ça soit moins problématique les probabilités mais bon disont que là cetais vrement pas de bol et qu'effectivement je n'ai vrement pas eu chance je préfère prendre les choses comme ça que de me dire que il y a un moteur de match qui ne fonctionne pas bien

But no, the match engine would not work well if the 4.7% probability of a draw were impossible to be the case regardless of the match.
But if there was a match with a 4.7% probability of a draw, 4.7% does not mean 0%. It's the opportunity numbers that hurt when you compare the XGs ⚽😂😂, but there was a probability of the match being a draw.
Maybe showing these stats before the match would be even cooler than showing them after the match, well, if it's after the match we all know it's useless after the match before the match it would be useful.

AndrewLyon: Probabilité au poker je veut bien mais au foot jaimerai que ça soit moins problématique les probabilités mais bon disont que là cetais vrement pas de bol et qu'effectivement je n'ai vrement pas eu chance je préfère prendre les choses comme ça que de me dire que il y a un moteur de match qui ne fonctionne pas bien

This is a simulation that follows mathematical rules... How can the uncertainty of sport be represented other than by probabilities?

AndrewLyon: Là c'est un peu le chat qui ce mord la queue puisque si javais eu 50 occasions sans marqué tu aurait aussi bien pue me repondre que rien ne dit que j'aurai pas marqué a la 51,52,53 ou 54 emes occasions je pensse que 16 occasions ont est deja pas mal niveau incohérence face a une équipe B de jeunes en tout debut de formation.

In any case, your cup match yesterday was nothing to do with a carrot, your opponent deserved to win,
And playing an IE before a cup game isn't exactly optimal from a football club management point of view.
It's not enough to have a 99ng team to win, otherwise you'd be bored by the game because it's so easy to have a 99ng team.
Tactics are essential and we don't know if they've been optimal on your side, so it's also good to question yourself a little.
In real life too, if every club had to win every game because they said they had a great team... we'd all be up there.
TO CONQUER WITHOUT PERIL, ONE TRIUMPHS WITHOUT GLORY

He's talking about his IE match, not the cup match that followed, and I find that comment a bit misplaced. Perhaps he chose to focus on IE and skip the Cup? He's entitled to do that, isn't he?
You could adopt a less dismissive and condescending tone towards players who don't have your tactical science and your acute sense of management on VF... Is that how you deal with all your godchildren?

maradonald: Il parle de son match IE, pas du match de coupe qui a suivi, je trouve ce commentaire un peu mal placé. Il a peut-être fait le choix de mettre le paquet sur l'IE et de zapper la Coupe, non ? Il en a le droit, non ?
Tu pourrais adopter un ton moins dédaigneux et moins condescendant envers les joueurs qui n'ont pas ta science tactique et ton sens aigu de la gestion sur VF... Tu procèdes ainsi avec tous tes filleuls ?

He has been given answers, but refuses to listen.
He's had 50 subjects like this and it's always the same refrain.
But that's a bit like society these days,
Then you can go on with your delusion that you have to win every match, when the game is based on a logical mathematical sequence, and you can use some crazy ploy to find a loophole in Poisson's logic, which has been used for ages. You must have skipped your maths lessons in S xD
To answer your last question, I train my godchildren with sincerity and rigour, with the aim of helping them to grow. So yes, I do.
Kisses!

AndrewLyon talks about his IE match, you lecture him about his Cup match, I set the record straight and you give me a lesson in probability?
Don't you feel like you're going off topic?
Thanks for the moment.

maradonald: AndrewLyon parle de son match IE, tu te permets de lui faire la leçon sur son match de Coupe, je remets les choses aux clair et tu me donnes un cours de probabilités ?
T'as pas l'impression d'être hors sujet ?
Merci pour ce moment.

But as you're a fervent critic of the mdm, I'll leave you to your delusions.
Thank you for this moment

I invite you to find ONE SINGLE post of mine where I complain about the mdm.
ONLY ONE.
I'm waiting for

Zeus je pensese que tu mix tous là le match d'hier en coupe c'est un match organisé il y a plus de 6 mois par mon ancienne entente et le jeu a décidé 6 mois après de l'organiser cette saison je le sais car l'organisateur ma confirmé que il navais en aucun cas validé 6 mois après cette compétition sans valeur j'ai même contacté Michbou pour ça donc effectivement que je vai pas organisé un match de coupe la vieille d'un match Is donc oui tu a raison cette defaite était mérité car j'ai mis mon équipe jeune et perdu 4 0 ce qui est tout a logique cette fois ci alors essai de pas tous mélanger s'il te plait et j'ai jamais dit que je devait gagner a tous les coup du fait que j'ai une équipe supérieure a ceux que j'affronte encore heureux il n'y aurait aucun suspense et aucun goût a regarder sest match si on savais a l'avance le résultat. You know Zeus my father always told me to turn my tongue 7 times in my mouth before talking for nothing and my father is right it's a great piece of advice it saves me from coming out with bullshit and mixing everything up sometimes.

Personally, I think the mdm is simply buggy.

I'd like it not to be the case Mike but I'm starting to believe in it after that maybe it's a lack of maintenance at the same time I don't think a dozen IT pros are working on it given how little revenue the game generates because let's not lie it's not a game made to take our money that's what we like but We're just asking for a minimum, if only to work on the match engine over 1 or 2 hours, and in my opinion that would solve the problem, but after that it's easy to say, I don't know anything about IT, but it looks like the game has been left to its own devices, whereas it could be one of the best football management games if 2-3 people working on it from time to time

The ultimate orgasm would be for everyone to be able to touch the mdm before, or even during, each of their matches so that they can change it according to their own interpretation and vision of the stats and the IRL....Forget the tactical panel, let's dissect the mdm instead.

Hi Andrew,

I almost had the same bad luck as you :D
#match?mid=6548511

Except that one of my men left it until the last minute ^^.

Your attack was still very light xD
But great win ^^

Bj Gerets lol I was hoping for that last minute goal but it didn't come, unlike you snif.