Andre Malles |
7 giorni faWhen one of the teams is certain to score 0 goals, while the other isn't and the game finished 0-0, why are results with 0 probability "displayed" on the graph?
On the image above, sum of probable scores only amount to around 0.45, so why are some other possible results not shown (at least to make it above 50%)?
It looks like result is taken into account and only +/- couple of goals (up to 3 ?) are displayed as possible results (those with highest probability are displayed).
Magpie |
7 giorni faProbably because the opponent never has "zero" probability of scoring.
Here, 0 is shown, but this is probably a rounding-off.
In reality, they have a 0.04% chance of scoring a goal, and a 0.01% chance of scoring two, for example.
This is a guess, of course.
But I've already seen a club get a goal with 0 xG in the final report.
Personally, I've also conceded a goal against a club that had 0.01 xG in the final. Perhaps it had even less, but the figure in the summary is a rounding-off, I think.
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Andre Malles |
7 giorni faTo be fair, I've never seen someone conceding when the opponent had reported 0 expected goals.
Maybe it's not a bug, but more of a "bad user experience", as it would be more logical to display 4-0, 5-0. ... on the graph and in the list of possible scores sorted by probability (I think these possible results are omitted because algorithm uses score +- up to 3 goals) than those with probability less than 0.0005 (or 0.001 if rounding is not used), but the problem would be if a team scores against the odds and display is based only on expected goals, so the algorithm should probably consider both the score and expected goals.
The more I think about it, I'd say that it's not a bug, but there is not really category for "user experience". I think that it is kinda something that I would try to "fix" in my code if someone points out, but would insist that it's not a bug.
Brutus |
7 giorni faIf there's 0 - 0... why do you want to see 4-0 or 5-0?
So why do you want to make 0-1 or 0-2 disappear?
We've never scored 0%... it's the 10th or 100th so it's not displayed!
The reports are only superficial... you have to stop focusing on that ;)
Questo messaggio è stato tradotto. (FR) Messaggio originale
Andre Malles |
6 giorni faHaving seen a bit more match score reports, it's fair to say I was way too simplistic in "describing" an algorithm for score reports.
Just one thing about the said match report. 4-0 should be the second most probable score with more than 19%, yet it's entirely omitted. Looking at the graph, 20% (3-0) look almost like 50% because it's not 0.2/1, but 0.2/0.45. Shouldn't more than half of the graph "be reserved" for "other possible results" and shouldn't the list of possible scores ordered by probability take into account all scores and then filter those with probability less than 0.01 (seemingly like it does now) and maybe limit sorted list if it has to?
As someone who kinda likes maths and to a degree statistics, I'm not the biggest fan of these reports, but that's on me. The topic can be closed as far as I'm concerned.